Standings refresh automatically 3 times a day: 7am, noon, and 5pm Eastern.

MPA formulas. Preliminary Index = win points ÷ games scheduled (a win over a class A team is worth 40, B 38, C 36, D 34, 8-person 32; a tie half; minimum 1). Heal points = 10 × the sum of beaten opponents' Preliminary Index (ties half) ÷ games scheduled. A team's own Preliminary Index isn't part of its Heal points; it's what a win over that team is worth to others.

The forecast. Unplayed games are simulated 50,000 times from a strength rating built from this season's results, with a home-field edge when a schedule export is saved. The higher seed hosts early playoff rounds; the region/class final and the state final are at a neutral site, per the MPA's tournament bulletins.

Picking a result. Win, Tie or Loss counts for that game, but at half the weight of an actual result when it comes to how good the rest of the odds think that team is. A team that "wins out" is rated a bit better, not as if it had already gone and done it.

Personal tool. Data © Maine Principals' Association, which publishes results but no scores.

The bracket. Seeds are the MPA's final standings and the pairings are the MPA's own bracket. Results appear as the MPA posts them. Higher seeds host every round except the regional final and state final, which are at neutral sites.

Upcoming games. Each percentage is that team's chance to win the game, from the same team strength ratings as the regular-season forecast.

Spots not decided yet. The slanted name is the team most likely to get there (hover for the others). Its percentage is its chance to win if the projected teams meet, and the line above the game says how likely that matchup is.

Chances. The table lists the teams still alive and each one's chance to reach each round, from 20,000 simulated tournaments that keep the results so far.

Personal tool. Data © Maine Principals' Association.